PocketStyler · Data Field Guide · n = 6,372 looks

The Style Index

What actually moves the vote — decoded from 6,372 scored looks, cross-checked by four independent models.

6,372
looks analysed
4
models in consensus
+30pp
best single lever
5.00
hard vote ceiling
How to read the numbers

This edition uses a cleaner metric. A look is a success if its vote score lands in the top ~31% of all looks. Lift is how many percentage points an item adds to that 30.8% baseline. So +0.30 means the item roughly doubles your odds of a strong vote. Rates are statistically shrunk, so small samples are pulled toward the average rather than topping charts on luck. mv = mean vote score.

Confidence n ≥ 200 · strong n 60–199 · moderate n < 60 · informational ▲ helps ▼ hurts

01 · Summary Statistics

the lay of the land

The vote score is set by other players and the algorithm — it's what this guide exists to move. The total score adds your bonus items on top. Everything below is measured against vote, not total, so nothing here is inflated by purchases.

The scale

Vote averages 3.62 and tops out at a hard 5.00 ceiling — confirmed again, not one look in 6,372 exceeded it. The 4.0 target lands 23% of the time. Total score averages 4.98.

1.1 · Venue baselines

VenueSuccessLiftMean voten
Met Museum · cream/aqua36.7%+0.0593.701,120
Ballroom · lavender/champagne31.5%+0.0073.67634
Times Square · cyan/pink31.2%+0.0033.63593
Stone Street · blush/taupe31.0%+0.0023.61800
Rooftop Café · peach/sky29.8%−0.0103.55618
Restaurant · beige/brown29.2%−0.0163.63747
Central Park · blue/green28.4%−0.0253.53623
Music Venue · plum/pink27.9%−0.0293.61468
Night Club · purple/magenta27.7%−0.0313.57663
Other / Special Event ▼26.6%−0.0433.6268
Correction from the last edition. Earlier cuts showed "Other/Special Event" converting five-star prizes at a spectacular rate on a tiny sample. With more data it is now the worst venue for vote score (−0.043). That earlier reading was small-sample noise — disregard it. Met Museum is the only venue with a meaningful positive edge, and it's the biggest venue too.

1.2 · Vibe & formality

Style vibe
VibeLiftmvn
Romantic+0.1373.78110
Chic+0.0123.622310
Boho+0.0043.60253
Glam−0.0013.652978
Rocker ▼−0.0593.52465
Casual ▼−0.0773.35151

Romantic overtakes glam. Glam is the most-played vibe and now sits at exactly neutral — it's become the crowd default. Romantic is the edge.

Formality
LevelLiftmvn
Black tie+0.0753.83167
Formal ▲+0.0543.75339
Semi-formal+0.0043.643621
Smart casual−0.0173.571911
Business casual ▼−0.0333.53116
Casual ▼−0.0473.44218

Unchanged and reliable: dress up, not down.

1.3 · Completeness

Key slots filled (of 12: top, bottom, dress, shoes, bag, outerwear, hosiery, hat, lip, nails, eyes, hair)
Slots5678910
Lift−0.025−0.030−0.018−0.001+0.033+0.042
mean vote3.483.563.573.633.683.71
n173769166621351205371

Clean and monotonic: every filled slot helps, and the jump from 8 to 9 is where it turns positive. Target 9–10 of the 12 key slots.

1.4 · Master lists

Bags — biggest category in the game
BagLiftmvn
Hobo bag+0.2584.00106
Evening bag+0.2493.98140
Crossbody bag+0.2273.9084
Shoulder bag+0.0543.73953
Tote bag+0.0463.69127
Clutch+0.0173.681306
Top-handle bag ▼−0.08 (models)258

Update: the clutch was last edition's pick and is now only mildly positive. The hobo, evening and crossbody bags are in a tier of their own — each near +0.25, roughly doubling your odds.

Lip colors
LipLiftmvn
Hot pink / magenta+0.3014.0164
Bright pink / magenta ▲+0.2704.0564
Pink-mauve ▲+0.2523.9766
Bold pink / magenta+0.2354.0446
Mauve pink+0.1833.86177
Red ▼−0.10 (models)114

Lip color is the single strongest lever in the game. Hot pink at +0.301 nearly doubles your success odds. The red family remains a trap.

Shoes
ShoeLiftn
Pumps+0.082307
Stilettos+0.077996
Knee-high boots+0.049626
Strappy sandals+0.027650
Ankle boots ▼−0.029697
Bottoms & dresses
ItemLiftn
Leggings+0.092110
Midi dress+0.059136
Evening gown+0.048426
Straight-leg pants+0.040238
Skinny pants+0.025309
Mini skirt ▼−0.040941
Bodycon dress ▼−0.04765

Midi dress now edges the evening gown. Mini skirts are heavily worn (n=941) and clearly negative.

02 · Vote Score Analysis

four models, one answer

This edition tests every feature through four separate models — random forest, extra trees, gradient boosting and ridge regression — each asking "if every look wore this instead, what happens to the vote?" When four different algorithms agree, the finding is about as solid as this data gets.

Unanimous across all four models

Helps: excellent theme alignment · green eyes · evening bag · mauve pink lip · fedora.
Hurts: fair theme alignment · red and deep-red lips · top-handle bag · hair clip.
These nine are the closest thing to certainty in the dataset.

2.1 · Model consensus

Predicted change in vote score · range across the four models
ChangeEffect rangeAgreementn
Theme → excellent+0.19 to +0.284 / 4177
Eye color → green+0.14 to +0.234 / 453
Bag → evening bag+0.09 to +0.244 / 431
Lip → mauve pink+0.09 to +0.214 / 439
Hat → fedora+0.05 to +0.194 / 431
Bottom fabric → denim+0.04 to +0.183 / 472
Eye color → brown / dark+0.08 to +0.164 / 455–58
Bag → top-handle−0.06 to −0.104 / 4258
Hat → hair clip−0.05 to −0.104 / 494
Lip → red−0.05 to −0.114 / 4114
Lip → deep red / burgundy−0.06 to −0.184 / 493
Theme → fair−0.11 to −0.184 / 4382

2.2 · What this tells us about the algorithm

One model disagrees on "bold red." Three models penalise the whole red family, but gradient boosting rates "bold red" lip at +0.090 (n=217) while still penalising plain "red" (−0.097). Plain and deep reds are a clear no; bold red is genuinely contested — pink remains the safer choice.

03 · Venue Guide

lift measured against each venue's own baseline

This edition measures every recommendation against the venue's own baseline, not the global one — so these are the items that beat that specific backdrop, with the venue's difficulty already accounted for.

Top venue-specific plays · lift vs that venue's baseline · n ≥ 25
VenueBest playLiftRunner-upBest colors
Met Museum
base 36.9%
Striped bottom mv 4.14+0.148Evening bag · knee-high bootsGray outerwear · champagne dress
Ballroom
base 31.5%
Evening bag mv 4.00+0.148Pumps · sequin bottomBlack shoes · black hat · red bag
Rooftop Café
base 29.8%
Knee-high boots+0.141Silk gown · evening gownNude shoes · silver or teal bag
Night Club
base 27.6%
Sequin bag mv 3.93+0.146Evening gown · silk bottomRed top · silver bag · red bottom
Central Park
base 28.3%
Floral bottom+0.132Stilettos · denim bottomPlatinum/white hair · silver shoes
Times Square
base 31.2%
Sequin bottom mv 4.04+0.118Stilettos · denim bottomCream top & outerwear · auburn hair
Music Venue
base 27.8%
Wool outerwear mv 4.02+0.114Maxi skirt · platform heelsGold bottom · yellow top · gold shoes
Stone Street
base 31.0%
Floral bottom+0.102Fur bag · pumpsNude hosiery · silver or teal shoes
Restaurant
base 29.2%
Ankle boots mv 3.87+0.095Skinny pants · midi skirtChampagne bottom mv 4.29 · gold
The pattern worth internalising: the winning play is venue-specific and often counterintuitive. Ankle boots are a global negative (−0.029) but the single best shoe at Restaurant (+0.095). Striped bottoms mean little overall but are the top play at the Met. Check the venue row before defaulting to the global list.

Met Museum n 1,120

Ballroom n 634

Night Club & Rooftop Café n 663 / 618

Central Park & Stone Street — floral country n 623 / 800

Times Square, Music Venue & Restaurant n 593 / 468 / 747

04 · Theme Guide

the one lever that tops every model

Theme alignment is the only feature that appears at the top of all four models. The game grades how well your look reads as the occasion, and that grade moves the vote more than any single garment.

GradeLiftMean voteModel effectn
Excellent+0.0643.83+0.19 to +0.28922
Good+0.0183.67+0.05 to +0.063,446
Fair−0.0543.45−0.11 to −0.181,871
Poor ▼▼−0.1433.30large133

Poor to excellent is a 0.53-point mean-vote swing — roughly three times the entire best-to-worst venue gap. Note that 29% of all looks land on "fair," so this is where most score is lost.

Exact props: confirmed as weak

Last edition flagged that theme props look powerful in raw averages but wash out under modelling. This dataset settles it: exact props are worth only +0.015 lift (n=863). The prop is a symptom of an on-brief outfit, not the cause. Build the whole look to read as the occasion — don't bolt on a token object.

How to climb the ladder

05 · Color Theory

harmony beats variety

The game reads your palette as a relationship between base, secondary and accent. The preference holds across every dataset: cohesive and restrained beats busy and scattered.

5.1 · Harmony

HarmonyLiftmvnVerdict
Monochromatic+0.0333.68955Best
Analogous+0.0173.661,991Strong
Mixed+0.0143.58214Neutral
Complementary−0.0153.593,076Overused
Triadic ▼▼−0.1693.34136Never

Triadic is now the single worst palette choice in the entire guide (−0.169) — worse than any garment, worse than poor theme alignment on the lift scale. Complementary is the most-played harmony and mildly negative; switching your default to monochromatic is free score.

5.2 · The palette dials

  • Low saturation +0.019 · high saturation −0.022.
  • Low brightness +0.019 — deep and rich beats washed-out.
  • Medium contrast +0.026 is the sweet spot; high contrast −0.013.
  • Single or two-tone +0.011 vs multicolor −0.022.

5.3 · Best colors by role

Base color
ColorLiftn
Cream+0.08282
Dark brown mv 3.80+0.07857
Silver+0.06281
Blush pink+0.058131
Navy blue+0.053130
Teal mv 3.76+0.036154
Accent color
ColorLiftn
Silver+0.028610
Green+0.02581
Hot pink+0.01958
Gold+0.0141,938
Black+0.009381

Silver now edges gold as the default accent metal, reversing the earlier reading. Gold is the most-used and barely positive.

Item-level color picks (highest lift, n ≥ 20): bag in olive (+0.089) or amber · bottom in medium blue (+0.169) or burnt orange · dress in dusty rose (+0.124) or light blue · top in denim blue (+0.159) · shoes in blush (+0.151) or clear · outerwear in gray (+0.111) or light blue · hosiery in champagne (+0.146) or beige · hair in blue (+0.176) or highlights.

06 · Fabric, Pattern & Texture

free points on choices you make anyway

You pick a fabric regardless, so pick the one that scores. The effects are modest individually but they stack across six or seven garments.

Winning fabrics & textures
  • Sequin bag +0.095 (n=344) — the strongest fabric play in the game
  • Metallic bag +0.093 · metallic bottom +0.068
  • Denim top +0.138 (n=46) · denim bottom +0.058 — genuinely new this edition
  • Silk hat/hairpiece +0.103 · silk bag +0.080
  • Cotton dress +0.075 · fur bag +0.051
Patterns
  • Animal print is the best pattern across the board — bottom +0.096, outerwear +0.072, bag +0.047, top +0.031
  • Plaid outerwear +0.038 · striped bottom +0.029
  • Floral is venue-dependent: weak globally but the top play at Central Park and Stone Street
Avoid fluffy and oversized. The bottom of the table is remarkably consistent: fluffy dress (−0.059), fluffy shoes (−0.056), fluffy bottom (−0.045), fluffy hat (−0.028), plus oversized top (−0.052) and oversized bottom (−0.034). Suede shoes (−0.059) and thigh-high stockings (−0.037) also drag. The algorithm wants defined shapes and surfaces that catch light.

07 · Beauty & Grooming

the highest-leverage section

Lip color is now the strongest single lever measured anywhere in this guide, and eye color is the #2 feature in three of four models. Most players leave these fields blank, which makes this the biggest gap between what's available and what's claimed.

Fill all three face fields

Looks with all of lip, nails and eye color filled run +0.070 lift. Looks with only one run −0.051. That's a 0.12 swing — bigger than any garment in the game — for filling in fields you already have access to.

Eye color
ColorLiftmvn
Blue / teal+0.2143.9644
Blue-green+0.2113.9452
Teal / green+0.2023.9349
Green+0.1233.84278
Brown+0.0833.77263
Blue+0.0233.58411

Update: the teal-green blends now beat plain green. Any defined color beats leaving it blank.

Lip color — strongest lever in the guide
LipLiftmvn
Hot pink / magenta+0.3014.0164
Bright pink / magenta+0.2704.0564
Pink-mauve+0.2523.9766
Bold pink / magenta+0.2354.0446
Mauve pink+0.1833.86177
Red / deep red ▼negative in 4/4 models114
Hair color
ColorLiftmvn
Platinum + silver-white+0.1923.9260
Silver + white+0.1413.8969
Black+0.0533.71523
Blonde+0.0433.72108

Correction: last edition recommended black. With more data, silver-white and platinum clearly beat it (+0.19 vs +0.05). Black is still safe and well-evidenced, but it's no longer the best.

The rest of the face
  • Nails: black +0.132, dark/black +0.079, nude/natural +0.077. Red nails still drag.
  • Hair length: medium +0.034 > long −0.011 > short −0.014.
  • Hats: fedora +0.104 and cowboy hat +0.093 lead; beret +0.066 and bow headband +0.050 also work. Hair clip is negative in all four models.
  • Hosiery: champagne +0.146, beige +0.103, nude +0.053. Black (−0.012), white (−0.020) and pink (−0.037) all drag.

08 · Winning Combinations

new — pairs that beat their parts

Individual items are one thing; this edition measures pairs. Some combinations lift far more than either half alone, and the top of this table beats every single-item effect in the guide.

Highest-lift pairs · n ≥ 30
CombinationLiftMean voten
Evening bag + sequin+0.2724.1640
Hobo bag + leather+0.2024.0488
Crossbody bag + leather+0.1733.8870
Romantic + semi-formal+0.1703.9081
Pumps + synthetic+0.1463.85113
Evening bag + leather+0.1413.9330
Denim top + solid+0.1313.7638
Midi skirt + sequin+0.1233.9130
Straight-leg pants + denim+0.1133.8636
Skinny pants + denim+0.1044.1047
Leggings + synthetic+0.1013.8294
Stilettos + synthetic+0.0863.76542
Glam + black tie+0.0653.83167
The single best combination in the dataset is a sequin evening bag (+0.272, mean vote 4.16). It stacks the best bag shape with the best fabric, and it beats every individual feature except a hot pink lip. If you own one, it belongs in almost every look.

09 · Challenge Decoder

new — read difficulty from the title

This is the most practical addition to the guide. Individual challenges have small samples, but the words in the challenge name pool across hundreds of entries — so you can estimate difficulty before you spend a single item.

Words that signal an easy win
WordLiftmvn
"exclusive"+0.1183.8840
"tasting"+0.1103.7858
"vip"+0.1013.76121
"bachelorette"+0.0903.8942
"private"+0.0903.83130
"wedding"+0.0843.8466
"birthday"+0.0793.8193
"dinner"+0.0763.7586
"urban"+0.0743.9050
Words that signal trouble
WordLiftmvn
"contest"−0.1643.2784
"fusion"−0.1463.4341
"inspired"−0.1313.2741
"backstage"−0.1023.4961
"accessory"−0.0953.4744
"making"−0.0883.3869
"performance"−0.0863.4750
"work"−0.0843.4345
"karaoke" / "judging"−0.0793.4948–61
The rule this gives you

Exclusivity and celebration words are green lights. VIP, private, exclusive, wedding, bachelorette, birthday, dinner — these are occasions where dressing up is correct, which is exactly what the algorithm rewards.

Task, judgment and creativity words are red lights. Contest, judging, making, work, performance, backstage, fusion, inspired — briefs that ask you to do something or interpret something abstract. "Contest" (−0.164) is the worst word in the game.

10 · Trends, Designers & Consumables

carried forward

The current data drop doesn't include trend, designer, celebrity or perfume fields, so this section carries forward the findings from the previous 6,013-look cut. They were stable across three datasets before this one, but they haven't been re-verified against the newest looks — treat them as reliable background rather than fresh evidence.

Trend families
  • High-fashion / avant-garde 5.15 avg (n=310) — best-evidenced winner
  • Old Hollywood / vintage 5.10 (n=834) — the reliable large-sample pick
  • Western 5.19 (n=62) · dark academia 5.18 (n=47)
  • Quiet luxury 5.04 (n=159) · boho 5.06 (n=151)

Editorial restraint beats maximalism — consistent with this edition's penalty on oversized and fluffy.

Perfume orbs
  • Red 5.76 avg (n=79) — best consumable signal found
  • Orange 5.48 (n=382) · pink 5.40 (n=602)
  • Yellow 5.26 · blue 5.13
  • Green 4.93 — avoid, it appears in the low-score feature list

Buy warm. Note these are total-score figures from the prior cut, so bonus is included.

Designers: Dior (5.25, n=47) and Max Mara (5.22, n=30) were the best-evidenced; Louis Vuitton and Bottega scored higher on small samples. Celebrity: Naomi Campbell (5.72, n=12) was the only reference with repeat support — the archetype (polished supermodel, old-Hollywood starlet) matters more than the specific name.

11 · Ultimate Do's & Don'ts

ordered by measured impact

✦ Do

  • Wear a hot pink, bright pink or mauve lip — +0.30 lift, the strongest single item measured.
  • Carry a hobo, evening or crossbody bag — all near +0.25. Best of all: a sequin evening bag (+0.272).
  • Fill all three face fields — lip, nails, eyes. Worth a 0.12 swing over filling one.
  • Set eye color to a teal-green blend (+0.20) or green.
  • Nail the theme. Excellent vs fair is the biggest structural swing in the game.
  • Go romantic + semi-formal (+0.170) or push to formal / black tie.
  • Fill 9–10 of the 12 key slots.
  • Go monochromatic, low saturation, low brightness, medium contrast, single or two-tone.
  • Finish with silver (now ahead of gold), and check the venue table — Ballroom wants black, Music Venue wants gold.
  • Use sequin, metallic, silk and denim; reach for animal print.
  • Try silver-white or platinum hair (+0.19), medium length.
  • Wear pumps or stilettos; fedora or cowboy hat if headwear fits.
  • Spend premium items on "VIP," "private," "exclusive" and "wedding" briefs.

✕ Don't

  • Don't go triadic (−0.169) — the worst palette choice in the guide.
  • Don't wear a red or deep-red lip — negative in all four models.
  • Don't carry a top-handle bag — negative in all four models, and 258 looks still do it.
  • Don't clip your hair back — hair clips are negative in all four models.
  • Don't leave face fields blank — filling only one costs you −0.051.
  • Don't wear oversized tops or bottoms (−0.052 / −0.034).
  • Don't choose fluffy anything — dress, shoes, bottom and hat all sit at the bottom.
  • Don't default to a mini skirt (−0.040) or ankle boots (−0.029) — except ankle boots at Restaurant, where they're the top shoe.
  • Don't dress casual or business casual, and go easy on rocker (−0.059).
  • Don't rely on a token theme prop — worth only +0.015.
  • Don't burn consumables on "contest," "inspired," "fusion" or "backstage" briefs.
  • Don't assume special events are a jackpot — that earlier finding was small-sample noise and has reversed.
The one-line version

Pink lip, statement bag, full face, tight monochrome palette, dressed up, on brief — and save your best items for the VIP invitations.